From tomatoes to wheat, Indian crop forecasting is in the grip of a Raja Todar Mal problem

by Evelyn Lewis on Jun 10, 2022 Podcasts 472 Views

New Delhi: Tharavamat Nanda Kumar vividly remembers the day, some 16 years ago, when he visited the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO).

A few days before the visit, Kumar, then the additional chief secretary of Jharkhand, had received an SOS call to report to Delhi and take over as secretary of food and public distribution. The country was going through a wheat crisis. Signs of a shortage were evident. Public stocks were dwindling.

The government, headed by Manmohan Singh at the time, had already decided to import wheat.

When Kumar, then 56, went for a briefing at the PMO, he was advised by an official: “Do not rely solely on the wheat production estimates from the agriculture ministry. Talk to traders, look for price signals from domestic and international markets, do your own homework and research before making a decision.”

Kumar followed the advice diligently. But the ministry he once served seems to have failed to learn from its series of missteps between 2003 and 2006 — when India exported wheat to draw down public stocks and later resorted to imports.

 

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Article source: https://article-realm.com/article/Internet-Business/Podcasts/23336-From-tomatoes-to-wheat-Indian-crop-forecasting-is-in-the-grip-of-a-Raja-Todar-Mal-problem.html

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